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Decadal changes in thermocline depth explain the second-year surface cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Accurate coupled models are crucial for predicting sea surface temperature evolution.

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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Science

Background:

  • The eastern equatorial Pacific frequently exhibits second-year surface cooling.
  • This phenomenon impacts climate patterns and requires accurate prediction.
  • Understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial for climate modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the causes of the observed second-year surface cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific in late 2021.
  • To assess the role of decadal thermocline depth changes in this phenomenon.
  • To evaluate the capability of coupled models in representing these processes for accurate sea surface temperature prediction.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of observational data from late 2021.
  • Utilizing coupled climate models to simulate ocean-atmosphere interactions.
  • Investigating the influence of thermocline depth variations on sea surface temperature.

Main Results:

  • Frequent second-year surface cooling is linked to decadal thermocline depth changes.
  • Thermocline depth dictates the balance between local cooling (east) and remote warming (west).
  • Coupled models require balanced representation of these processes to predict sea surface temperature evolution.

Conclusions:

  • Decadal thermocline depth variability is a key driver of eastern equatorial Pacific surface cooling.
  • Accurate representation of ocean-interior and remote oceanic influences is essential for climate models.
  • Improved coupled models are needed for reliable sea surface temperature predictions.