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Dynamics of novel COVID-19 in the presence of Co-morbidity

Amit Kumar Saha1, Chandra Nath Podder1, Ashrafi Meher Niger1

  • 1Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.

Infectious Disease Modelling
|May 9, 2022
PubMed

Insights

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission reveals that controlling the virus requires a basic reproduction number below one. Public mask-wearing can significantly reduce COVID-19 spread, especially in co-morbid populations.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic poses a significant global health challenge.
  • Individuals with weakened immune systems and underlying conditions (e.g., cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, cancer) face increased susceptibility and complication risks.
  • Co-morbidities exacerbate COVID-19 severity and outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a deterministic compartmental model for understanding COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
  • To investigate the impact of key epidemiological parameters on disease spread.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of public health interventions like mask-wearing.

Main Methods:

  • Formulation of a deterministic compartmental mathematical model.
  • Rigorous mathematical analysis, including backward bifurcation analysis.
  • Numerical simulations using COVID-19 transmission data.
  • Analysis of disease-free and endemic equilibrium states based on the basic reproduction number.

Main Results:

  • The model demonstrates backward bifurcation when the basic reproduction number is less than unity.
  • A basic reproduction number less than one is necessary and sufficient for COVID-19 control (disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable).
  • Public mask-wearing can lead to significant COVID-19 elimination.
  • Co-morbidity substantially increases disease prevalence.

Conclusions:

  • Mathematical modeling provides insights into COVID-19 transmission dynamics.
  • Controlling COVID-19 is achievable with a basic reproduction number below one.
  • Widespread use of face masks is a critical intervention for disease reduction.
  • Co-morbidities represent a significant challenge in managing the pandemic.

Keywords:
COVID-19Co-morbidityFace-mask

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