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Survival analysis of COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia: A hospital-based study

Abdene Weya Kaso1, Gebi Agero2, Zewdu Hurissa3

  • 1School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Science, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia.

Plos One
|May 9, 2022
PubMed

Insights

COVID-19 mortality is high. Older patients, those with HIV/AIDS, COPD, CKD, or in ICU care face increased death risk, especially within 14 days of admission.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Diseases

Background:

  • COVID-19 poses a significant global health threat with high mortality rates.
  • Understanding mortality predictors in hospitalized patients is crucial for effective management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine the time to death and identify predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the Arsi zone treatment center.
  • To inform clinical practice and public health strategies for COVID-19 patient care.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted using medical records of 422 COVID-19 patients.
  • Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were employed to assess survival probability and identify mortality predictors.
  • Data included sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, with significance assessed at the 5% level.

Main Results:

  • The overall mortality rate was 6.35 per 1000 person-days, with 11.14% of patients dying.
  • The majority of deaths (87.2%) occurred within 14 days of admission, with a median time-to-death of 9 days.
  • Independent risk factors for increased COVID-19 mortality included older age (31-45 and >46 years), HIV/AIDS, COPD, CKD, ICU admission, and intranasal oxygen therapy.

Conclusions:

  • Patients with HIV/AIDS, COPD, and CKD face a substantially higher risk of dying from COVID-19.
  • Advanced age, ICU admission, and intranasal oxygen support are also associated with increased mortality.
  • Close monitoring of elderly patients and those with comorbidities within the first ten days of hospitalization is essential.
Abstract

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