Analyzing historical and future acute neurosurgical demand using an AI-enabled predictive dashboard

Area of Science:

• Neurosurgery
• Healthcare Analytics
• Artificial Intelligence

Background:

• Characterizing acute service demand is crucial for emergency specialties like neurosurgery to optimize resource distribution and treatment access.
• The post-Covid-19 pandemic period presents challenges with surgical backlogs and increased acute referrals, necessitating advanced analytical tools.
• Current healthcare dashboards offer insights based on inference, limiting their predictive operational utility.

Purpose of the Study:

• To retrospectively analyze and prospectively forecast acute neurosurgical referrals using a novel AI-enabled predictive dashboard.
• To assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on neurosurgical referral volumes.
• To evaluate the usability, feasibility, and acceptability of the AI-enabled dashboard among healthcare stakeholders.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis and prospective forecasting of 10,033 acute neurosurgical referrals from March 2020 to October 2021 at a London tertiary neurosciences center.
• Application of validated time-series forecasting methods, including Prophet, to predict referral trends.
• Mixed-methods approach to evaluate the stakeholder acceptance of the AI-enabled dashboard.

Main Results:

• Weekly neurosurgical referral volumes significantly increased during the study period, particularly for spinal referrals (p < 0.05).
• Time-series forecasting projected a continued increase in referrals beyond October 2021.
• Prophet demonstrated superior test and computational performance for forecasting neurosurgical referrals.
• The AI-enabled dashboard was found to be usable, feasible, and acceptable to key stakeholders.

Conclusions:

• AI-enabled predictive dashboards are valuable tools for characterizing and forecasting acute neurosurgical demand.
• These tools can support dynamic resource allocation and improve timely access to care in high-demand neurosurgical services.
• The developed dashboard approach is a viable and acceptable solution for healthcare providers managing post-pandemic referral surges.