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Developing an Integrated "Regression-QMRA method" to Predict Public Health Risks of Low Impact Developments (LIDs)
Sadia Ishaq1, Rehan Sadiq2, Gyan Chhipi-Shrestha1
1School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, Kelowna, BC, V1V 1V7, Canada.
Environmental Management
|May 11, 2022
Summary
Low Impact Developments (LIDs) manage stormwater but can harbor pathogens. A new Regression-QMRA method predicts infection risks during LID planning, enabling safer urban water management.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Microbiology
Background:
- Low Impact Developments (LIDs) are crucial for sustainable urban stormwater management.
- Both stormwater and LIDs can harbor microbial pathogens, posing infection risks to urban populations.
- Current Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) methods evaluate risks during LID operation, not during the planning phase.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply an integrated Regression-QMRA method for predicting microbial infection risks associated with planned Low Impact Developments.
- To assess the potential disease burden from specific pathogens during different LID use scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Developed an integrated "Regression-QMRA method" correlating pathogen concentration with environmental variables.
- Applied the methodology to a planned LID treatment train scenario.
- Quantified the disease burden (DALYs) for key pathogens like Campylobacter, Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Norovirus.
Main Results:
- The Regression-QMRA method successfully predicted microbial infection risks during the planning phase of an LID train.
- Campylobacter posed the highest predicted disease burden (16.902 DALYs/1000 persons/yr) during landscape irrigation and recreational use of the LID.
- Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Norovirus also presented significant, though lower, predicted risks.
Conclusions:
- Microbial infection risks from Low Impact Developments can be predicted proactively during the planning stage.
- This predictive capability is vital for municipalities and decision-makers to implement risk-based stormwater management.
- Informed planning ensures the development of safer urban water infrastructure and protects public health.
Keywords:
Low Impact Developments (LIDs)Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA)Regression modelingRisk-based planningStormwater systemMore Related Videos
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