Human genetic factors associated with pneumonia risk, a cue for COVID-19 susceptibility

Pneumonia, an acute respiratory tract infection, is one of the major causes of mortality worldwide. Depending on the site of acquisition, pneumonia can be community acquired pneumonia (CAP) or nosocomial pneumonia (NP). The risk of pneumonia, is partially driven by host genetics. CYP1A1 is a widely studied pulmonary CYP family gene primarily expressed in peripheral airway epithelium. The CYP1A1 genetic variants, included in this study, alter the gene activity and are known to contribute in lung inflammation, which may cause pneumonia pathogenesis. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis to establish the possible contribution of CYP1A1 gene, and its three variants (rs2606345, rs1048943 and rs4646903) towards the genetic etiology of pneumonia risk. Using PRISMA guidelines, we systematically reviewed and meta-analysed case-control studies, evaluating risk of pneumonia in patients carrying the risk alleles of CYP1A1 variants. Heterogeneity across the studies was evaluated using I2 statistics. Based on heterogeneity, a random-effect (using maximum likelihood) or fixed-effect (using inverse variance) model was applied to estimate the effect size. Pooled odds ratio (OR) was calculated to estimate the overall effect of the risk allele association with pneumonia susceptibility. Egger's regression test and funnel plot were used to assess publication bias. Subgroup analysis was performed based on pneumonia type (CAP and NP), population, as well as age group. A total of ten articles were identified as eligible studies, which included 3049 cases and 2249 healthy controls. The meta-analysis findings revealed CYP1A1 variants, rs2606345 [T vs G; OR = 1.12 (0.75-1.50); p = 0.02; I2 = 84.89%], and rs1048943 [G vs T; OR = 1.19 (0.76-1.61); p = 0.02; I2 = 0.00%] as risk markers whereas rs4646903 showed no statistical significance for susceptibility to pneumonia. On subgroup analysis, both the genetic variants showed significant association with CAP but not with NP. We additionally performed a spatial analysis to identify the key factors possibly explaining the variability across countries in the prevalence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a viral pneumonia. We observed a significant association between the risk allele of rs2606345 and rs1048943, with a higher COVID-19 prevalence worldwide, providing us important links in understanding the variability in COVID-19 prevalence.