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Updated: Sep 23, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Quantifying firm-level economic systemic risk from nation-wide supply networks
Christian Diem1,2, András Borsos1,3,4, Tobias Reisch1,5
1Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Josefstädter Strasse 39, 1080, Vienna, Austria.
A small fraction of companies pose a significant economic systemic risk (ESR) to national production. Understanding firm-level network positions, not just size, is crucial for assessing and mitigating this risk.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Network Science
- Business Management
Background:
- COVID-19 highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities and complex production interdependencies.
- Quantitative assessment of individual firm impact on network production fragility was lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel approach for computing economic systemic risk (ESR) at the firm level.
- To quantitatively assess the impact of individual companies on national economic production within supply networks.
Main Methods:
- Construction of a firm-level production network using a unique value-added tax dataset.
- Development and application of a novel method to compute ESR for all firms.
Main Results:
- Identified that 0.035% of companies possess extraordinarily high ESR, potentially disrupting 23% of national economic production.
- Demonstrated that firm position within the production network, not size, substantially influences ESR.
- Showed aggregated data limitations for reliable ESR assessment.
Conclusions:
- Firm-level network analysis is essential for understanding and managing economic systemic risk.
- Supply chain redundancies and network topology adjustments can mitigate ESR for critical firms.
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