Mixtures-Inclusive In Silico Models of Ocular Toxicity Based on United States and International Hazard Categories

Computational modeling grounded in reliable experimental data can help design effective non-animal approaches to predict the eye irritation and corrosion potential of chemicals. The National Toxicology Program (NTP) Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM) has compiled and curated a database of in vivo eye irritation studies from the scientific literature and from stakeholder-provided data. The database contains 810 annotated records of 593 unique substances, including mixtures, categorized according to UN GHS and US EPA hazard classifications. This study reports a set of in silico models to predict EPA and GHS hazard classifications for chemicals and mixtures, accounting for purity by setting thresholds of 100% and 10% concentration. We used two approaches to predict classification of mixtures: conventional and mixture-based. Conventional models evaluated substances based on the chemical structure of its major component. These models achieved balanced accuracy in the range of 68-80% and 87-96% for the 100% and 10% test concentration thresholds, respectively. Mixture-based models, which accounted for all known components in the substance by weighted feature averaging, showed similar or slightly higher accuracy of 72-79% and 89-94% for the respective thresholds. We also noted a strong trend between the pH feature metric calculated for each substance and its activity. Across all the models, the calculated pH of inactive substances was within one log10 unit of neutral pH, on average, while for active substances, pH varied from neutral by at least 2 log10 units. This pH dependency is especially important for complex mixtures. Additional evaluation on an external test set of 673 substances obtained from ECHA dossiers achieved balanced accuracies of 64-71%, which suggests that these models can be useful in screening compounds for ocular irritation potential. Negative predictive value was particularly high and indicates the potential application of these models in a bottom-up approach to identify nonirritant substances.