Predictive value of clinical symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis in young adults

Objective: Assessment of predictive values of clinical symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis in young adults. Participants: Nonresidential university students (ages 18-25) participating in surveillance testing and mandatory symptom survey between 9/9/2020 and 11/25/2020. Methods: Retrospective study of test results and symptom survey data. Results: Among 6,489 individuals, 288 (4.4%) tested positive for COVID-19, 90 (31.3%) of whom reported symptoms. COVID-19 prevalence among individuals reporting and not reporting symptoms was 17.2% and 3.3%, respectively. The four symptoms with highest positive predictive values (PPVs) were smell/taste loss (PPV = 38.5%), chills (PPV = 31.5%), muscle/joint pain (PPV = 26.0%), and fever (PPV = 25.9%). Conclusions: Institutions should emphasize COVID-19 risk for highly predictive symptoms in public health messaging to inform individuals on when to seek testing or self-isolation. However, low COVID-19 diagnostic accuracy of clinical symptoms and the high pre-symptomatic/asymptomatic rate (69%) highlight the limitations of voluntary testing strategies employed by higher education institutions during the original strain of SARS-CoV-2.