Fertility intentions to have a second or third child under China's three-child policy: a national cross-sectional...

What proportion of people want to have a second or third child after the enactment of the three-child policy in China?

Under the three-child policy, fertility intention to have a second child was ∼60% (56% of women vs 65% of men), and fertility intention to have a third child was 13% (10% of women vs 17% of men) among the Chinese population.

The Chinese government announced the three-child policy on 31 May 2021, allowing all couples to have up to three children. At present, there is a lack of national surveys on the fertility intentions of women and men to have a second or third child under the three-child policy in China.

In June 2021, a national cross-sectional survey including 9243 respondents aged 18-49 years was conducted online from 31 provinces in China's mainland using a random sampling method.

Data on the intention to have a second or third child were collected by anonymous questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were performed to assess fertility intentions. Multivariate and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between fertility intentions and the investigated factors.

Approximately 60% (5493/9243) of the investigated people (55.6% women vs 64.7% men) intended to have a second child, and 13.0% (1203/9243) of them (10.0% women vs 17.1% men) intended to have a third child under China's three-child policy. For non-child respondents, 46.8% of women and 60.4% of men intended to have a second child. For one-child respondents, 47.8% of women and 53.8% of men intended to have a second child. For two-child respondents, 14.4% of women and 25.9% of men intended to have a third child. The mean desired family size was 1.58 children per woman, which was lower than the 1.76 children per man. Notably, the age-specified fertility intentions of men were always higher than those of women. Women with a college or higher degree (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.60, 95% CI 0.42-0.88) and a high-middle (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.53-0.95) or high (aOR 0.64, 95% CI 0.48-0.85) household income, as well as men living in urban areas (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.87) and having a high-middle household income (aOR 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.90), were associated with a lower intention to have a third child (all P < 0.05). In contrast, men of public service personnel had a higher intention to have a third child than factory workers (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.02-2.04, P < 0.05). Meanwhile, approximately one out of five two-child respondents intended to have a third child, while one out of four two-girl respondents (aOR 2.09, 95% CI 1.44-3.04) were willing to have a third child with a strong preference for boys (12.7% for boys vs 2.7% for girls). Economic and childrearing barriers were the leading barriers to having one more child.

The online survey might limit the representativeness of the present study's sample. A large sample size was enrolled and a random sampling method was used to increase the sample diversity and representativeness.

This study will assist in estimating the impact on population demographic of the three-child policy in China. Multiple efforts are needed to create a fertility-friendly environment for couples, thereby increasing fertility intentions to have one more child and increasing fertility rates.

No funding. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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