Machine Learning-Based Prediction Models for Depression Symptoms Among Chinese Healthcare Workers During the Early COVID-19 Outbreak in 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)-related depression symptoms of healthcare workers have received worldwide recognition. Although many studies identified risk exposures associated with depression symptoms among healthcare workers, few have focused on a predictive model using machine learning methods. As a society, governments, and organizations are concerned about the need for immediate interventions and alert systems for healthcare workers who are mentally at-risk. This study aims to develop and validate machine learning-based models for predicting depression symptoms using survey data collected during the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

Surveys were conducted of 2,574 healthcare workers in hospitals designated to care for COVID-19 patients between 20 January and 11 February 2020. The patient health questionnaire (PHQ)-9 was used to measure the depression symptoms and quantify the severity, a score of ≥5 on the PHQ-9 represented depression symptoms positive, respectively. Four machine learning approaches were trained (75% of data) and tested (25% of data). Cross-validation with 100 repetitions was applied to the training dataset for hyperparameter tuning. Finally, all models were compared to evaluate their predictive performances and screening utility: decision tree, logistics regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest, and gradient-boosting tree.

Important risk predictors identified and ranked by the machine learning models were highly consistent: self-perceived health status factors always occupied the top five most important predictors, followed by worried about infection, working on the frontline, a very high level of uncertainty, having received any form of psychological support material and having COVID-19-like symptoms. The area under the curve [95% CI] of machine learning models were as follows: LASSO model, 0.824 [0.792-0.856]; random forest, 0.828 [0.797-0.859]; gradient-boosting tree, 0.829 [0.798-0.861]; and decision tree, 0.785 [0.752-0.819]. The calibration plot indicated that the LASSO model, random forest, and gradient-boosting tree fit the data well. Decision curve analysis showed that all models obtained net benefits for predicting depression symptoms.

This study shows that machine learning prediction models are suitable for making predictions about mentally at-risk healthcare workers predictions in a public health emergency setting. The application of multidimensional machine learning models could support hospitals' and healthcare workers' decision-making on possible psychological interventions and proper mental health management.