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Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study

Jie-Feng Huang1, Ze-Yu Zhao1, Wen-Kui Lu2

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.

Infectious Disease Modelling
|May 16, 2022
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Mumps outbreaks show seasonal peaks, with transmissibility influenced by meteorological factors like temperature and humidity. Understanding these patterns is key to controlling mumps epidemics.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics
  • Environmental Health

Background:

  • Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease often occurring in winter and spring.
  • Understanding mumps epidemiology and transmission is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps.
  • To assess mumps transmissibility and its correlation with meteorological variables.

Main Methods:

  • A seasonal Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIR) model was employed.
  • The next-generation matrix method was used to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (R0).

Main Results:

  • Mumps incidence exhibited seasonal double peaks, primarily in May-July and November-December.
  • The median reproduction number (R0) was 1.091, indicating high transmission. R0 showed seasonal distribution from February-April and September-November.
  • Correlations were observed between new mumps cases and temperature, relative humidity, and local pressure. Meteorological factors including local pressure, wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine duration were correlated with R0.

Conclusions:

  • Xiamen City experiences high mumps transmissibility, contributing to continuous epidemics.
  • Meteorological factors, particularly air temperature and relative humidity, appear closely associated with mumps transmission dynamics.
Keywords:
CorrelationMeteorological factorsMumpsTime-dependent reproduction numberTransmissibility

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