Multi-scenario simulation of ecological risk assessment based on ecosystem service values in the...

In this study, a framework for ecological risk assessment based on ecosystem service values and risk probability was established. Remote sensing was used to estimate the value of ecosystem services at the regional scale. Considering the natural and anthropogenic factors and using the entropy weight method to assign weights, probability index was constructed. In addition, multiple scenarios based on the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method were simulated to reduce subjective uncertainty in the assessment. The results showed that the ecosystem service values generated by the gas regulation value accounted for the largest proportion, with a ratio of 46% in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. From 2005 to 2015, the value of ecosystem services decreased, falling by 2.5 × 10⁷ Yuan. The level of ecological risk was relatively high, with a corresponding area ratio of 32.89%. Spatially, the areas with high risk were concentrated in the southeastern areas, and areas with relatively low risk were distributed in the western and northern areas. This high risk was probably caused by urbanization which was characterized by reduction of farmland and increase in impervious surface. Multi-scenario simulation showed that the areas of unstable ecological risk zones covered 30% and were mainly concentrated in the surroundings of developing cities. In areas of unstable risk distribution, the relationship between development and protection should be considered. This framework increases the reliability and practicability of ecological risk assessment results and has potential application value for regional risk control in the context of urbanization.