Tracking COVID-19 urban activity changes in the Middle East from nighttime lights

Area of Science:

• Remote Sensing and Earth Observation
• Public Health and Epidemiology
• Geospatial Analysis

Background:

• COVID-19 pandemic necessitated physical distancing measures globally.
• Limited data exists on population activity shifts, especially outside Europe/US.
• Public health decisions often lack region-specific behavioral data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess adherence to COVID-19 physical distancing measures using satellite data.
• To analyze population-scale activity changes in Middle Eastern urban areas.
• To evaluate the utility of nighttime lights for tracking public response to policies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized multi-year (2015-2020) daily time-series data from NASA's Black Marble VIIRS nighttime lights product (VNP46A2).
• Analyzed data from 584 urban areas across 17 Middle Eastern countries during the initial COVID-19 pandemic phase (first 4 months).
• Correlated nighttime light intensity changes with the implementation of national curfews and lockdowns.

Main Results:

• Nighttime lights effectively captured the onset of national lockdowns and curfews.
• Observed significant inconsistencies in adherence to control measures, both between and within countries.
• Demonstrated lower adherence in conflict-afflicted nations, underscoring compound health and security risks.

Conclusions:

• Satellite-derived nighttime lights offer a valuable tool for assessing public response to physical distancing policies.
• Findings highlight the importance of socio-cultural factors influencing policy success.
• Space-based measurements are crucial for informing public health strategies in data-sparse and fragile regions.