Parsimonious risk model for predicting mortality after surgical lung biopsy for interstitial lung disease

To develop a risk model for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in patients with interstitial lung disease undergoing surgical lung biopsy.

From 2004 to 2019, patients who underwent surgical lung biopsy for interstitial lung disease were included in this study. Based on the findings of the multivariable analysis using preoperative clinical variables, a risk model for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity was developed.

During the study period, 1177 patients were enrolled. Among them, morbidity and mortality occurred in 45 (3.8%) and 29 (2.5%) patients, respectively, which gradually declined over time from 8.9% in 2004-2005 to 0% in 2018-2019. In the final multivariable analysis, the dyspnoea grade, a forced vital capacity of ≤60%, preoperative oxygen therapy and preoperative intensive care unit stay were found to be the independent factors associated with both morbidity and mortality; smoking >40 pack-years was additionally identified as a factor related to mortality. Diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide ≤50%, which was a significant factor in the univariable analysis, became insignificant after adjustment for the forced vital capacity in the multivariable analysis. The risk scoring system based on this model showed a good discriminant ability for both morbidity [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval): 0.830 (0.726-0.932)] and mortality [0.887 (0.804-0.975)].

We developed a scoring system for predicting the risk of morbidity and mortality, which could help determine surgical candidates for lung biopsy among patients with interstitial lung disease.