Predictive Model of Cerebral Vasospasm in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Based on Regression Equation

In order to explore the regression equation for the prediction model of subarachnoid hemorrhage and cerebral vasospasm, the nomogram prediction model of SCVS occurrence was established. This study is a retrospective analysis of 125 cases of aSAH admitted to a hospital; the patients were divided into SCVS group and non-SCVS group. Select SIRI as a simple and reliable marker of inflammation, analyze its correlation with SCVS and its predictive value, and analyze the predictive value of SIRI to SCVS through ROC curve. Based on the SIRI inflammation level and other related risk factors, a nomogram prediction model for the occurrence of SCVS was built. The experimental results show that the SIRI level of patients in the SCVS group was significantly higher than that of the non-SCVS group, and logistic regression analysis found that SIRI is an independent risk factor for SCVS. SIRI = 3.63 × 10⁹/L is the best cutoff value for diagnosing the occurrence of SCVS. When TC = 2.24 mmol/L and SIRI = 3.63 × 10%/L, its Youden Index is the largest (0.312, 0.296) and is the best cutoff value for predicting the occurrence of SCVS; at the same time, its prediction accuracy (area under the ROC curve (AUC)), sensitivity, specificity, the positive predictive value, and negative predictive value are 0.743, 72.70%, 80.10%, 77.53%, and 94.24% and 0.725, 70.60%, 76.90%, 73.49%, and 93.59%. Nomogram prediction model establishment and evaluation combined with the results of multifactor analysis are used to build an individual nomogram prediction model. The model has good prediction consistency (C-index = 0.685, P < 0.01). ROC analysis results showed that the model that combined SIRI and other standard variables (AUC = 0.896, 95% CI was 0.803-0.929, P < 0.001) was better than the model that did not combine SIRI (AUC = 0.859, 95% CI was 0.759-0.912, P < 0.001) and the model based only on SIRI (AUC = 0.725, 95% CI was 0.586-0.793, P = 0.001) has better predictive value for SCVS. Joint SIRI will optimize the prediction performance of the nomogram model and improve the early recognition and screening capabilities of SCVS.