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Heat-Related Mortality in Germany From 1992 to 2021.

Claudia Winklmayr1, Stefan Muthers, Hildegard Niemann

  • 1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany; Research Centre Human Biometeorology, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Freiburg, Germany; Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany; Department of Environmental Hygiene, German Environment Agency (UBA), Berlin, Germany.

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Unusually warm summers in Germany from 2018-2020 caused thousands of heat-related deaths. Despite some adaptation, extreme heat remains a significant public health threat, necessitating continued monitoring and public health strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Germany experienced exceptionally warm years from 2018 to 2020, with summer 2018 being the second warmest on record since 1881.
  • Elevated temperatures are consistently linked to increased mortality rates, especially among vulnerable populations like the elderly.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the number of heat-related deaths in Germany during the unusually warm summers of 2018-2020.
  • To analyze long-term trends in the impact of heat on mortality over three decades.
  • To assess the ongoing threat of heat events to public health in Germany.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized weekly all-cause mortality and mean temperature data spanning 1992-2021 for all of Germany and its regions.
  • Employed a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate heat-related mortality.
  • Conducted a comparative analysis of heat's effect on mortality across different decades.

Main Results:

  • An estimated 8700, 6900, and 3700 heat-related deaths occurred in Germany in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively.
  • No statistically significant increase in heat-related deaths was observed in 2021.
  • A slight overall decline in the impact of high temperatures on mortality was noted over the past three decades.

Conclusions:

  • Despite evidence of some population adaptation to heat, the high mortality figures from 2018-2020 underscore the persistent danger of heat events.
  • Heat remains a significant public health concern in Germany, requiring ongoing attention and intervention strategies.