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Identifying immunity gaps for measles using Belgian serial serology data.

Julie Schenk1, Steven Abrams2, Amber Litzroth3

  • 1Data Science Institute, Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), UHasselt, Diepenbeek, Belgium.

Vaccine
|May 19, 2022
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Summary

Measles re-emergence highlights critical immunity gaps in Belgium. A Bayesian model revealed lower measles seroprevalence in birth cohorts vaccinated during early, suboptimal coverage periods, emphasizing the need to close these gaps.

Keywords:
Bayesian MCMCImmunity goalsMeasles eliminationSerial serological survey data

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Immunology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Vaccine-preventable diseases like measles are re-emerging globally, even in areas with high vaccination rates.
  • Identifying and addressing immunity gaps is crucial for maintaining herd immunity and preventing outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the evolution of measles seroprevalence in Belgium using a Bayesian cohort model.
  • To identify specific birth cohorts with suboptimal measles immunity.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a simple cohort model with a Bayesian approach.
  • Analyzed three cross-sectional serological survey data collections from Belgium (2002, 2006, 2013).
  • Incorporated information on measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine properties.

Main Results:

  • Identified similar measles seroprevalence profiles across Belgian regions.
  • Observed a significant drop in seroprevalence in birth cohorts vaccinated during the initial years of routine MMR vaccination.
  • This immunity gap persisted across survey years, becoming more pronounced by 2013.

Conclusions:

  • The study identified specific immunity gaps in Belgian birth cohorts due to suboptimal early vaccination coverages.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic may further exacerbate immunization coverage issues, increasing the urgency for targeted immunization programs.
  • Sustaining and achieving measles immunity goals requires continuous identification and closure of existing immunity gaps.