Climate mediates color morph turnover in a species exhibiting alternative reproductive strategies

Sexual selection is considered the primary driver of morph turnover in many color polymorphic taxa, yet the potential for other factors (like climate) to contribute to polymorphism maintenance and evolution remains unclear. Appreciation for a role of environmental conditions in the maintenance and evolution of color polymorphisms has grown in recent years, generating evidence suggesting that color morphs linked to sexual selection may also diverge in climate sensitivity. Focusing on the three color components contributing to the male tree lizard (Urosaurus ornatus) color morphs, I reveal a marked concordance between patterns of turnover over space and time, with a general affinity of orange- and yellow-colored males to hotter, more variable conditions, and blue colored males to wetter, cooler conditions. An assessment of long-term turnover in the blue color component in response to recent climate change over the past 60 years reinforces these findings. Overall, behavioral asymmetries attributed to sexual selection likely expose competing morphs to divergent environmental conditions in heterogeneous habitats, creating opportunity for natural selection to shape climate sensitivities that also drive turnover in morph color composition. Ultimately, these processes may favor stark asymmetries in morph persistence over the coming decades.