Collaborative agent-based modeling for managing shrub encroachment in an Afroalpine grassland
Cara Steger1, Randall B Boone2, Bikila Warkineh Dullo3
1Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA.
Journal of Environmental Management
|May 20, 2022
Summary
Agent-based modeling of Ethiopian Afroalpine grasslands shows guassa grass resilience to drought but vulnerability to belg rain reduction. Management must integrate traditional practices for shrub encroachment control.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Shrub encroachment threatens Ethiopian Afroalpine grasslands.
- Community conservation areas require tools for understanding and managing ecosystem changes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To co-design an agent-based model for shrub encroachment in Ethiopian Afroalpine grasslands.
- To explore social-ecological scenarios and inform management decisions for conservation areas.
Main Methods:
- Agent-based modeling parameterized with literature, remote sensing, and expert opinion.
- Evaluation of scenarios including precipitation changes, guassa grass harvest frequency, and shrub removal.
Main Results:
- The model is highly sensitive to annual guassa grass harvest levels.
- Guassa grass shows resilience to dry conditions, but reduced belg rains significantly decrease grass biomass.
- Collaborative modeling fostered learning and planning among diverse stakeholders.
Conclusions:
- Integrating traditional ecological management is crucial for addressing shrub encroachment.
- Understanding the impact of changing climatic regimes, particularly belg rain decline, is vital for Afroalpine ecosystem management.
- The study provides a foundation for social-ecological research in threatened Afroalpine ecosystems.
Keywords:
Co-design and co-creationCommunity-based conservationEthiopiaParticipatory modelingSocial-ecological systemsTraditional ecological knowledgeMore Related Videos
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