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Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming.

E M Wolkovich1,2,3, C J Chamberlain2,3, D M Buonaiuto2,3

  • 1Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change impacts plant phenology, but recent shifts are muted. Interactions between spring phenological cues, studied through laboratory experiments, are key to understanding these complex plant responses.

Keywords:
budburstchillingclimate changeforcingleafoutnonlinear responsesphotoperiodspring warming

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Plant Biology
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Plant phenology, the timing of seasonal life events, has advanced globally due to climate change.
  • Recent decades show muted phenological shifts, diverging from simple warming predictions.
  • Interactions between spring phenological cues are hypothesized to explain these trends in natural environments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the role of phenological cue interactions in plant responses to climate change.
  • To evaluate the integration of laboratory experimental insights with long-term observational data.
  • To identify opportunities for improving phenological forecasting models.

Main Methods:

  • Synthesized seven decades of laboratory experiments on plant phenology.
  • Quantified the study of phenological cue-space and compared experimental treatments with climate change-driven shifts.
  • Reviewed biases in observational studies and limited integration with laboratory findings.

Main Results:

  • Most laboratory studies focus on a single phenological cue, limiting predictive accuracy.
  • Well-studied forest species present opportunities for advancing phenological forecasting.
  • Significant gaps exist in understanding how multiple cues interact under climate change.

Conclusions:

  • Accurate linking of observed phenological shifts to underlying cues is hindered by study biases and poor integration.
  • Greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data is crucial.
  • Future research should focus on physiologically-informed laboratory experiments to transform phenology understanding and prediction.