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THE INTERGENERATIONAL MORTALITY TRADE-OFF OF COVID-19 LOCKDOWN POLICIES.

Lin Ma1, Gil Shapira2, Damien de Walque2

  • 1Singapore Management University Singapore.

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|May 23, 2022
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This summary is machine-generated.

Lockdowns to control COVID-19 may worsen child mortality in low-income nations due to economic decline. Optimal pandemic policies must balance health and economic impacts, with shorter, milder lockdowns recommended for poorer countries.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • COVID-19 lockdowns aim to reduce disease transmission but can cause severe economic contractions.
  • Economic downturns in lower-income countries are linked to increased child mortality, potentially offsetting public health gains from lockdowns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the net effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on child mortality in countries with varying income levels.
  • To determine optimal lockdown strategies that maximize social welfare by considering both health and economic factors.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model incorporating heterogeneous agents.
  • Calibration of the model using country-specific data on economic downturns and child mortality for 85 nations.
  • Simulation of lockdown scenarios to assess impacts on mortality and social welfare.

Main Results:

  • In some low-income countries, lockdowns can lead to a net increase in overall mortality.
  • The economic impact of lockdowns on child mortality is more severe in poorer nations.
  • Optimal lockdown policies, maximizing social welfare, are found to be shorter and less stringent in lower-income countries compared to higher-income ones.

Conclusions:

  • Pandemic control measures like lockdowns require careful consideration of their economic consequences, particularly on child mortality in low-income settings.
  • Tailored, income-specific lockdown strategies are essential for effective public health policy and maximizing societal well-being during pandemics.