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The autumnal lockdown was not the main initiator of the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 circulation in France
Veronica Pereda-Loth1,2, Aldair Martínez Pineda1, Lenka Tisseyre1,2
1Équipe de Médecine Evolutive, URU EVOLSAN, Faculté de Chirurgie Dentaire, Université Toulouse III, Toulouse, France.
Communications Medicine
|May 23, 2022
Summary
Governmental and non-governmental indicators lagged behind actual SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Curfews, not just lockdowns, were key to controlling transmission in France, suggesting a balance of measures is needed.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated stringent public health measures with unintended consequences.
- Assessing the effectiveness of these policies is hindered by delays in pandemic indicators relative to actual SARS-CoV-2 virus circulation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To synchronize surveillance indicators with actual viral circulation in France.
- To evaluate the impact of different public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a landmark event (first lockdown) to measure time lags between indicator peaks and peak virus circulation.
- Aligned surveillance data with viral circulation during the second epidemic wave, correlating with implemented public health measures.
Main Results:
- The second SARS-CoV-2 peak in France occurred around October 21, 2020, preceding the October 31 lockdown.
- Viral circulation decreased earlier in areas with curfews.
- Indicators showed a rise in transmission after the November lockdown ended and the state of emergency resumed.
Conclusions:
- The 2020 autumn lockdown was not the primary driver of decreased SARS-CoV-2 circulation in France; curfews played a significant role in transmission control.
- A balanced approach combining less-restrictive and more-stringent public health measures may be necessary for sustained control of viral transmission.
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