Non-linear modelling reveals a predominant moisture limit on juniper growth across the southern Tibetan Plateau

Tree growth in plateau forests is critically limited by harsh climatic conditions. Many mathematical statistical methods have been used to identify the relationships between tree growth and climatic factors, but there is still uncertainty regarding the relative importance of these factors across different regions. We tested major climatic limits at 30 sites to provide insights into the main climatic limits for juniper trees (Juniperus tibetica Kom.) across the southern Tibetan Plateau.

We analysed the linear and non-linear relationships between tree growth and climatic factors using Pearson correlation statistics and a process-based forward Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) model, respectively. These relationships were used to identify the strength of the influence of different climatic factors throughout the species' growing season and to identify the main climatic factors limiting tree growth.

Growth of juniper trees began in April and ended in October in the study area. The radial growth of juniper trees was limited by soil moisture throughout the summer (June-August) of the current year at 24 sampling sites and was limited by temperature at the other six sites on the southern Tibetan Plateau.

Soil moisture limited juniper growth at the majority of sites. Temperature in the current summer limited the growth of juniper trees at a few sampling sites in the western part of the study area. Local climate conditions may contribute to different limiting factors in the growth response of trees on the southern Tibetan Plateau. These findings may contribute to our understanding of divergent forest dynamics and to sustainable forest management under future climate scenarios.