Establishment of a prediction model for disease progression within one year in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma...

Multiple myeloma is still an incurable disease In the past decade, with the continuous progress of treatment methods, the progression-free survival of patients has been prolonged, but some patients still progress in the early stage of the disease. Our research analyses the clinical laboratory indicators of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients, to obtain the relevant factors of disease progression within one year in MM patients and to establish a prediction model.

108 MM patients treated in our hospital from January 2015 to January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. After univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, the related factors of disease progression within one year in NDMM patients were obtained, and a prediction model was established.

Treatment regimen containing at least two targeted drugs (OR = 0.226, 95% CI 0.068-0.753), increased lactate dehydrogenase(LDH, OR = 3.452, 95% CI 1.101-10.826) and increased serum corrected calcium(OR =  4.466, 95% CI 1.346-14.811) were identified as potential predictors by statistical analysis. The prediction model was obtained: x = -2.042-1.489 × treatment regimen (including at least two targeted drug assignment as 1, otherwise 0) + 1.239 ×LDH (U/L, lactate dehydrogenase elevation assignment as 1, normal as 0) +1.496 × serum corrected calcium (mmol/L, serum corrected calcium elevation assignment as 1, normal as 0). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the model has good predictive performance.

The possibility of disease progression within one year can be predicted by the prediction model. The model can be used as a reference for clinicians to make individualized treatment plans for patients so that patients can obtain better treatment effects.