Modeling polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in India: Seasonal variations, sources and associated health risks

Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are in high levels in developing countries like India. However, limited measurements are inadequate for better understanding of their ambient levels and health effects. This study predicted PAHs concentrations in atmosphere and estimated their sources and health risks in India in four representative months of winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon in 2015 using an updated version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ). Predicted PAHs were in agreement with observations from literature. Surface 16-PAHs were highest in winter, with a peak value of 2.5 μg/m³ and population-weighted average of 0.5 μg/m³ in northern and eastern India, where biomass burning and coal combustion were chief contributors. Pre-monsoon and monsoon had lower concentrations ∼0.2 μg/m³. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) was greater than 4E-4 in many industrial and urban areas. Exposure to PAHs resulted in 7431 excess lifetime cancer cases. Coal combustion and biomass burning were major contributors to ILCR, followed by gas and oil activities. Much higher health risks were observed in urban than in rural areas. India showed much higher levels of total PAHs and cPAHs than the U.S but moderately less than China.