Multi-arch dam safety evaluation based on statistical analysis and numerical simulation

The Foziling multi-arch dam, one of the few multi-arch dams in the world, was built on the bedrock with complicated geological conditions. It has undergone several reinforcements since it was put into service in the 1950s. In this study, the dam safety is evaluated by analyzing the measured displacements and simulating stresses in the concrete. Firstly, the multiple linear stepwise regression (MLSR) is used to train and test the relationships between the loads and displacement based on the hydrostatic-temperature-time (HTT) model. Subsequently, the contributions of water level, temperature, and time to displacements are determined, and the influence characteristics of water level and temperature on displacements are interpreted. Finally, the dam stress state is evaluated by establishing a dam finite element model and simulating the stress distribution in various operating conditions. The results indicate that (1) the dam is currently in an elastic state after the last reinforcement; (2) temperature contributes the most to the displacement, and the drastic fluctuation of temperature is the disadvantage factor for multi-arch dam safety; (3) the stresses generally can meet the requirements of code; and (4) the ideas and methods of the study can provide references for the safety evaluation of other concrete dams.