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Published on: September 16, 2022
Development and validation of a prediction model for tuberculous pleural effusion: a large cohort study and external
Yanqing Liu1, Zhigang Liang2, Songbo Yuan3
1Department of Laboratory Medicine, Ningbo First Hospital, 59 Liuting Street, Ningbo, 315010, Zhejiang, China.
Background:
Distinguishing tuberculous pleural effusion (TPE) from non-tuberculosis (TB) benign pleural effusion (BPE) remains to be a challenge in clinical practice. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a novel nomogram for diagnosing TPE.
Methods:
In this retrospective analysis, a total of 909 consecutive patients with TPE and non-TB BPE from Ningbo First Hospital were divided into the training set and the internal validation set at a ratio of 7:3, respectively. The clinical and laboratory features were collected and analyzed by logistic regression analysis. A diagnostic model incorporating selected variables was developed and was externally validated in a cohort of 110 patients from another hospital.
Results:
Six variables including age, effusion lymphocyte, effusion adenosine deaminase (ADA), effusion lactatedehy drogenase (LDH), effusion LDH/effusion ADA, and serum white blood cell (WBC) were identified as valuable parameters used for developing a nomogram. The nomogram showed a good diagnostic performance in the training set. A novel scoring system was then established based on the nomogram to distinguish TPE from non-TB BPE. The scoring system showed good diagnostic performance in the training set [area under the curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval (CI)), 0.937 (0.917-0.957); sensitivity, 89.0%, and specificity, 89.5%], the internal validation set [AUC (95%CI), 0.934 (0.902-0.966); sensitivity, 88.7%, and specificity, 90.3%], and the external validation set [(AUC (95%CI), 0.941 (0.891-0.991); sensitivity, 93.6%, and specificity, 87.5%)], respectively.
Conclusions:
The study developed and validated a novel scoring system based on a nomogram originated from six clinical parameters. The novel scoring system showed a good diagnostic performance in distinguishing TPE from non-TB BPE and can be conveniently used in clinical settings.
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