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Stochastic Dynamic Aircraft System Conflict Distribution under Uncertainties
Anrieta Dudoit1, Vytautas Rimša1, Marijonas Bogdevičius2
1Department of Aviation Technologies, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VILNIUS TECH), LT-10223 Vilnius, Lithuania.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|May 28, 2022
Summary
This study addresses aircraft system conflicts by analyzing stochastic distributions under uncertain wind and speed conditions. Understanding these distributions is crucial for enhancing air traffic management safety and efficiency.
Area of Science:
- Aviation Safety and Air Traffic Management
- Aerospace Engineering
- Stochastic Modeling
Background:
- Dynamic aircraft system conflicts, or concurrent events, arise from loss of separation (LOS) in aircraft trajectories.
- Regional air traffic management (ATM) aims to improve safety and efficiency through automated detection and resolution of these events.
- Uncertainty in wind and aircraft speed parameters significantly impacts conflict prediction and resolution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an approach for analyzing dynamic aircraft system conflicts under uncertain conditions.
- To demonstrate the stochastic distribution of conflict situations considering determined wind speeds and random wind direction/aircraft speeds.
- To provide insights into retrieving stochastic conflict distribution information at specific time instances.
Main Methods:
- Modeling dynamic aircraft systems experiencing concurrent event situations.
- Implementing stochastic distribution analysis based on determined wind speed and random wind direction/aircraft speed parameters.
- Retrieving and analyzing stochastic conflict distribution data at preferred time moments.
Main Results:
- The study demonstrates the stochastic distribution of aircraft system conflicts under specific parameter uncertainties.
- Retrieved stochastic data reveals potential impacts on flight safety, including horizontal plane "domino effect" conflicts.
- The findings also highlight implications for operational efficiency, affecting flight distance, time, fuel costs, delays, and emissions.
Conclusions:
- Stochastic analysis of aircraft system conflicts is essential for accurate safety and efficiency assessments in ATM.
- Understanding the impact of parameter uncertainty (wind, speed) is critical for mitigating risks and optimizing air traffic operations.
- The developed approach provides valuable data for enhancing the automation and effectiveness of future air traffic management systems.
Keywords:
air traffic management systemconflictdynamic aircraft systemrandom parametersstochastic distributionwindMore Related Videos
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