What Factors Would Make Single-Vehicle Motorcycle Crashes Fatal? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

The existing research on motorcycle safety has shown that single-vehicle motorcycle crashes (SVMC) account for a higher fatality rate than other types of crashes. Also, motorcycle safety has become one of the critical traffic safety issues in many developing countries, such as Pakistan, due to the growing number of motorcycles and lack of sufficient relevant infrastructure. However, the available literature on SVMC and motorcycle safety in developing countries is limited. Therefore, the present study attempted to investigate the factors that contribute to the injury severity of SVMC in a developing country, Pakistan. For this purpose, a random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances is developed using two years of data extracted from the road traffic injury research project in Karachi city, Pakistan. The study's findings show that the presence of pillion passengers and young motorcyclists indicators result in random parameters with heterogeneity in their means and variances. The study's results also reveal that the summer, morning time, weekends, older motorcyclists, collisions with fixed objects, speeding, and overtaking are positively, while younger motorcyclists and the presence of pillion passengers are negatively associated with fatal crashes. More importantly, in the particular Pakistan's context, female pillion passenger clothes trapped in the wheel, riding under the influence, intersections, U-turns, and collisions due to loss of control are also found to significantly influence the injury severity of SVMC. Based on these research findings, multiple appropriate countermeasures are recommended to enhance motorcycle safety in Pakistan and other developing countries with similar problems.