A multiple regression analysis for predicting local control of esophageal carcinoma treated by intracavitary...

A multiple regression analysis for predicting local control of esophageal carcinoma treated by intracavitary irradiation is reported. In phase I, the value of predicting local control (VPLC) was determined by five parameters: VPLC = 1.38950 - 0.01571 X (age) + 0.04517 X (tumor length) + 0.62167 X (stenosis) + 0.94811 X (deep ulcer) - 0.02969 X (Total dose of intracavitary irradiation). From correlations between VPLC and the local control observed in 19 phase I patients, it was determined that a VPLC value of 0.5 or more predicted local failure and a VPLC of less than 0.5 signified successful local control. In phase II, prediction of local failure or local control was made for another 24 patients by calculating VPLC, and 22 of the 24 cases (91.7%) were correctly predicted. These results indicate that VPLC is a useful index for predicting of local control after intracavitary irradiation in cases with esophageal carcinoma.