Local Public Health System Capabilities and COVID-19 Death Rates

Efforts to contain the health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have achieved less success in the United States than in many comparable countries. Previous research documented wide variability in the capabilities of local public health systems to carry out core disease prevention and control activities, but it is unclear how this variability relates to COVID-19 control. Our study explored this relationship by using a nationally representative sample of 725 US communities.

We used data collected from the National Longitudinal Survey of Public Health Systems to classify each community into 1 of 3 ordinal categories indicating limited, intermediate, or comprehensive public health system capabilities. We used 2-part generalized linear models to estimate the relationship between public health system capabilities and COVID-19 death rates while controlling population and community characteristics associated with COVID-19 risk.

Across 3 waves of the pandemic in 2020, we found a significant negative association between COVID-19 mortality and public health system capabilities. Compared with comprehensive public health systems, intermediate public health systems had an average of 4.97 to 19.02 more COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 residents, while limited public health systems had an average of 5.95 to 18.10 more COVID-19 deaths per 100 000 residents.

Overall, communities with stronger public health capabilities had significantly fewer deaths. Future initiatives to strengthen pandemic preparedness and reduce health disparities in the United States should focus on local public health system capabilities.