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The forecast trap
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.
Ecology Letters
|May 31, 2022
Summary
Selecting the most accurate forecast models can paradoxically lead to worse real-world outcomes, creating a "forecast trap." Embracing a diverse range of models is key to avoiding this issue in decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Management
- Data Science
Background:
- Model-based forecasts are increasingly influential in societal decisions, from elections to pandemics.
- Data explosion and computational methods enable sophisticated forecasting.
- Fisheries management relies heavily on model-based predictions for resource allocation.
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