Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Concept Videos

Social Traps01:41

Social Traps

23.6K
Social traps are negative situations where people get caught in a direction or relationship that later proves to be unpleasant, with no easy way to back out of or avoid. The concept was orignally introduced by John Platt who applied psychology to Garrett Hardin's "Tragedy of the Commons", where in New England herd owners could let their cattle graze in the common ground. This situation seems like a good idea, but an individual could have an advantage. If they owned...
23.6K
Hindsight Biases01:12

Hindsight Biases

3.9K
Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
3.9K
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic01:25

The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

7.4K
In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...
7.4K
What is Weather?01:07

What is Weather?

18.5K
Overview
18.5K
Prediction Intervals01:03

Prediction Intervals

2.4K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
2.4K
Hazard Rate01:11

Hazard Rate

194
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
194

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by
Same author

Meeting European Union biodiversity targets under future land-use demands.

Nature ecology & evolution·2025
Same author

Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Science (New York, N.Y.)·2024
Same author

Revisiting Fishery Sustainability Targets.

Bulletin of mathematical biology·2024
Same author

The AusTraits plant dictionary.

Scientific data·2024
Same author

Pretty Darn Good Control: When are Approximate Solutions Better than Approximate Models.

Bulletin of mathematical biology·2023
Same author

Teaching machines to anticipate catastrophes.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·2021
Same journal

Higher-Order Interactions Can Promote Coexistence by Rewiring Intransitivities Into Competitive Networks.

Ecology letters·2026
Same journal

Plants That Evolved Under High Phylogenetic Diversity Have Higher Invasion Success, Particularly in Undisturbed Communities.

Ecology letters·2026
Same journal

Predictors of Food Web Resistance to Environmental Change.

Ecology letters·2026
Same journal

AI, Comparative Advantage, and the Next Decade of Ecological Research.

Ecology letters·2026
Same journal

Towards Key Principles of Host-Associated Microbiome Assembly.

Ecology letters·2026
Same journal

Temperature and Resource Supply Drive Continental Variation in Size Structure of Freshwater Food Webs.

Ecology letters·2026
See all related articles

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 21, 2025

Low-Cost Automated Flight Intercept Trap for the Temporal Sub-Sampling of Flying Insects Attracted to Artificial Light at Night
06:19

Low-Cost Automated Flight Intercept Trap for the Temporal Sub-Sampling of Flying Insects Attracted to Artificial Light at Night

Published on: December 29, 2021

2.7K

The forecast trap.

Carl Boettiger1

  • 1Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA.

Ecology Letters
|May 31, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Selecting the most accurate forecast models can paradoxically lead to worse real-world outcomes, creating a "forecast trap." Embracing a diverse range of models is key to avoiding this issue in decision-making.

Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Management
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Model-based forecasts are increasingly influential in societal decisions, from elections to pandemics.
Keywords:
adaptive managementforecastingoptimal controlstochasticityuncertainty

More Related Videos

The Hawaii Protocol for Scientific Monitoring of Coffee Berry Borer: a Model for Coffee Agroecosystems Worldwide
14:29

The Hawaii Protocol for Scientific Monitoring of Coffee Berry Borer: a Model for Coffee Agroecosystems Worldwide

Published on: March 19, 2018

8.1K
Building Double-decker Traps for Early Detection of Emerald Ash Borer
06:07

Building Double-decker Traps for Early Detection of Emerald Ash Borer

Published on: October 4, 2017

8.0K

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Sep 21, 2025

Low-Cost Automated Flight Intercept Trap for the Temporal Sub-Sampling of Flying Insects Attracted to Artificial Light at Night
06:19

Low-Cost Automated Flight Intercept Trap for the Temporal Sub-Sampling of Flying Insects Attracted to Artificial Light at Night

Published on: December 29, 2021

2.7K
The Hawaii Protocol for Scientific Monitoring of Coffee Berry Borer: a Model for Coffee Agroecosystems Worldwide
14:29

The Hawaii Protocol for Scientific Monitoring of Coffee Berry Borer: a Model for Coffee Agroecosystems Worldwide

Published on: March 19, 2018

8.1K
Building Double-decker Traps for Early Detection of Emerald Ash Borer
06:07

Building Double-decker Traps for Early Detection of Emerald Ash Borer

Published on: October 4, 2017

8.0K
  • Data explosion and computational methods enable sophisticated forecasting.
  • Fisheries management relies heavily on model-based predictions for resource allocation.