A global evaluation of the associations between long-term dynamics of seed falls and rodents

One classic system of pulsed resource and animal population is mast seeding and population dynamics of seed-eating rodents in forests. However, we still lack an understanding of the global patterns regarding the contributions of seed falls to rodent outbreaks or population dynamics. We analyzed a global dataset of coupled long-term time series of seed abundances and rodent populations from published literature, including 66 and 89 time series (156 rodent-seed pairs from 37 studies) for rodent and seed abundances, respectively. We found only half of the examined rodent populations showed statistically significant coincidence between rodent outbreak and mast-seeding years. Over all the coupled time series, seed abundance was found to positively correlate with rodent abundance with a one-year lag, and the relative importance of seed abundance was much lower than that of density dependence in affecting rodent population growth rates. We also found the relative importance of seed abundance decreased, but that of rodent density dependence increased with the latitude of study. For the first time, our work provides a global pattern on the associations between seed falls and rodent population dynamics mostly in mid- and high-latitude forests, and highlights the necessity of more long-term studies on this subject in more forest ecosystems.