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Author Spotlight: Advancements and Challenges in Hepatitis B Virus Detection
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Burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infections in 2015 and future trends in Japan: A simulation study

Junko Tanaka1,2, Akemi Kurisu1,2, Masatsugu Ohara3,4

  • 1Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Graduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.

The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific
|May 31, 2022
PubMed

Insights

Chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) infections in Japan are projected to decrease by 2035. Continued efforts are needed for screening, linkage to care, and functional cures to meet elimination goals.

Area of Science:

  • Hepatology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health Epidemiology

Background:

  • Assessing chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) infections is crucial for achieving the World Health Organization's 2030 viral hepatitis elimination targets.
  • This study quantifies HBV and HCV infections in Japan using national database data and projects future trends.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV and HCV infections in Japan in 2015.
  • To predict the future burden of chronic HBV and HCV infections up to 2035.
  • To evaluate the expected impact of current care strategies on infection rates.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Japanese National Database (NDB) and data from first-time blood donors to determine 2015 infection numbers.
  • Employed a Markov simulation model with transition probabilities derived from NDB data for future projections.
  • Calculated infection numbers and projected trends for both hepatitis B and C virus infections.

Main Results:

  • In 2015, Japan had an estimated 1,905,187–2,490,873 chronic HBV and HCV infections.
  • By 2035, chronic HBV and HCV infections are predicted to decline to 739,118–1,045,884.
  • Significant reductions are anticipated for individuals not engaged in care, with HCV cases potentially decreasing by up to 76.1% and HBV by up to 49.3%.

Conclusions:

  • While the overall burden of HBV and HCV is expected to decrease by 2035, challenges in hepatitis control persist.
  • Enhanced screening strategies and improved linkage to care are vital for HCV elimination.
  • Development of a functional cure for HBV is necessary to further reduce disease burden.
Abstract

Keywords:
AC, asymptomatic carrierBepatitis BC-LC, compensated liver cirrhosisCH, chronic hepatitisD-LC, decompensated liver cirrhosisDAA, direct-acting antiviralGepatitis CHBV, hepatitis B virus, HCV, hepatitis C virusHCC, hepatocellular carcinomaICD, International classification of diseasesIFN, interferonJapanLC, liver cirrhosisMHLW, Ministry of health labourMTCT, mother-to-child transmissionMarkov modelNA, nucleos(t)ide analoguesNDB, national database, SVR, sustained virologic rate, WHO, World Health OrganizationPrediction

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