A tested method for assessing and predicting weather-crime associations

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Criminology
• Meteorology

Background:

• Limited research exists on the impact of haze as a distinct weather phenomenon on crime rates.
• Understanding weather's influence on criminal activity is crucial for effective resource allocation and public safety strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the correlation between haze, temperature, humidity, and criminal activity.
• To develop a predictive model for crime based on these weather variables.
• To compare the influence of these weather factors on crime in distinct climatic regions of Saudi Arabia (Riyadh and Makkah).

Main Methods:

• Utilized monthly crime data and historical weather records.
• Employed a regression model with a sequential statistical approach to determine correlation coefficients.
• Developed and applied a prediction model incorporating temperature, humidity, and haze data.

Main Results:

• A positive correlation was found between temperature, humidity, haze, and criminal activity in Riyadh.
• In Riyadh, a 1°C increase in temperature correlated with a 0.739 increase in assault; a 1°C increase in humidity correlated with a 0.164 increase in assault; increased haze correlated with a 0.359 increase in assault.
• Haze significantly impacted assault, theft, and drug-related crimes in Riyadh, but not in Makkah, where temperature and humidity showed significant correlations with crime.

Conclusions:

• Weather elements, particularly haze, temperature, and humidity, demonstrate a measurable relationship with criminal activity, especially in desert environments.
• Haze appears to be a more influential factor in crime rates in arid regions compared to coastal areas.
• The findings underscore the need to consider meteorological data in crime analysis and prediction models.