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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 21, 2025

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations

Published on: February 3, 2023

Rate-induced collapse in evolutionary systems.

Constantin W Arnscheidt¹, Daniel H Rothman¹

¹Lorenz Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface

|June 1, 2022

Summary

Rapid environmental change can cause extinction if evolution cannot adapt quickly enough. Rate-induced tipping shows extinction and evolutionary rescue are linked outcomes of adaptation speed.

Keywords:

collapse evolutionary rescue extinction nonlinear dynamics rate-induced tipping points

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Evolutionary Biology
Complex Systems

Background:

Rate-induced tipping describes abrupt system transitions due to rapid perturbations.
This phenomenon is potentially applicable to evolutionary systems facing environmental change.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate rate-induced tipping in evolutionary systems.
To connect rate-induced extinction with evolutionary rescue concepts.
To develop and validate a minimal evolutionary-ecological model.

Main Methods:

Developed a minimal evolutionary-ecological model.
Compared minimal model with a complex agent-based model.
Analyzed system dynamics under varying rates of environmental change.

Main Results:

Rate-induced extinction and evolutionary rescue are inverse phenomena.
Identified a critical threshold rate for inducing extinction.
Observed a consistent scaling law for this threshold rate.

Conclusions:

Evolutionary systems are broadly susceptible to rate-induced collapse.
Rapid environmental change poses a significant extinction risk.
Findings apply to diverse systems, including ecosystems and societies.