Saharan air outflow variability in the 1980-2020 period

Airborne dust represents a hazard to the environment and human health. The outflow of air masses carrying dust from northern Africa, the world's largest active dust source, to the North Atlantic and Mediterranean regions is modulated by atmospheric conditions. However, how global warming-driven changes on atmospheric circulation have influenced North African air outflow in the recent past is not well understood. Here, we explore the Saharan air outflow from northwestern Africa over the 1980 to 2020 period. We find a decrease in the transport to the Atlantic Ocean and the Iberian Peninsula of -0.29 ± 0.16% dec^-1 and -0.66 ± 0.18% dec^-1, respectively, and an increasing trend to the Mediterranean Sea (0.24 ± 0.18% dec^-1) and Europe (0.60 ± 0.18% dec^-1). The results indicate that the strengthening of the Atlantic high pressure system and the Saharan thermal low, both associated with the narrowing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Hadley Cell expansion under global warming, could be favoring the Saharan outflow to the Mediterranean Sea and Europe in detriment of transport to the Atlantic Ocean. The results also show that present-day Saharan air arrives at these regions at higher altitudes and in shorter timescales than decades ago. This is associated to the increase in surface heating conditions in the Sahara, 0.41 ± 0.02 °C dec^-1, that can inject air into windier upper atmospheric levels, thereby allowing higher and faster air transport. Our results suggest a change in the Saharan air outflow likely associated with global warming and with potentially significant implications for the temporal and spatial patterns of North African dust export.