Effect of epidemic management and control plan on COVID-19 mortality in Iran: an interrupted time series analysis

Globally, several measures have been taken to decrease COVID-19 mortality. However, the effectiveness of preventive measures on the mortality related to COVID-19 has not been fully assessed. Thus, the present study aimed the present study aimed to assess the success of COVID-19 epidemic management and control plan on the mortality associated with COVID-19 in Iran from February 19, 2020, to February 5, 2021.

In the current quasi experimental study an interrupted time series analysis of daily collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 occurred in Iran and in the world, were performed using Newey ordinary least squares regression-based methods.

In Iran, the trend of new deaths increased significantly every day until 24 November 2020 according to pre-intervention slope of [(OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.96-1.32,); P < 0.001]. The occurrence of new deaths had a decreasing trend after November 24, 2020, with a coefficient of [(OR -5.12, 95% CI -6.04 - -4.20), P < 0.001)]. But in the global level daily new deaths was increasing before [(OR 18.66, 95% CI 14.41-2292; P < 0.001)] and after the 24 November 2020 [(OR 57.14, 95% CI 20.80-93.49); P: 0.002].

Iranian COVID-19 epidemic management and control plan effectively reduced the mortality associated to COVID-19. Therefore, it is essential to continue these measures to prevent the increase in the number of deaths.