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This study reveals a continuous phase transition in the Maki-Thompson rumor spreading model, contrary to prior beliefs. A modified model with forgetting shows rumor lifespan increases as spreading rate drops.

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Area of Science:

  • Complex Systems
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Information Science

Background:

  • Human interactions drive information and rumor spread, amplified by digital communication.
  • The Maki-Thompson model is a key mathematical framework for understanding rumor dynamics.
  • Previous analyses suggested the Maki-Thompson model lacks a phase transition.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the presence of a phase transition in the Maki-Thompson model.
  • To explore a modified Maki-Thompson model incorporating a forgetting mechanism.
  • To analyze the impact of forgetting on rumor dynamics and lifespan.

Main Methods:

  • Mathematical analysis using mean-field approximations.
  • Development and simulation of a modified Maki-Thompson model with a forgetting component.
  • Characterization of rumor dynamics using analytic and numeric methods.

Main Results:

  • A continuous phase transition was identified in the standard Maki-Thompson model.
  • The modified model with forgetting exhibits rich dynamic behaviors.
  • Subcritical rumor behavior shows a power-law relationship between lifespan and spreading rate.

Conclusions:

  • The Maki-Thompson model exhibits a richer dynamic behavior than previously understood.
  • The inclusion of a forgetting mechanism significantly alters rumor spreading dynamics.
  • This research provides new insights into the complex nature of information diffusion.