Curbing dioxin emissions from municipal solid waste incineration: China's action and global share

China generates the world's second-largest amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) and incinerates the largest quantity of MSW. However, data on the latest dioxin emissions from MSW incineration (MSWI) and the related global share were lacking. In the context of MSW classification, distinguishing the long-term MSW generation and incineration quantity, and dioxin emissions was necessary for macro-control and policy-making by the Chinese Government. By considering population size and GDP per capita, China's MSW generation toward 2050 was projected based on Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, dioxin emission factors were also assumed based on the diffusion rate of four grades of air pollution control devices (APCDs). Finally, we show that the quantity of China's MSW generation in 2050 will be 363.50 million tonnes (Mt) with 341.06-382.45 Mt of 75% certainty. China's dioxin emissions from MSWI were approximately 15.46 g I-TEQ in 2019, which accounted for 26.1% of total emissions from global MSWI. We discuss dioxin emission reduction scenarios depending on MSW diversion and APCD upgrades. China's dioxin emissions will be 70.38 g I-TEQ for the business-as-usual scenario, and the dioxin emissions will be 9.29 g I-TEQ (within the range of 8.88-9.64 g I-TEQ) for the optimal scenario in 2050. Moreover, in 2050, the APCD diffusion rate will account for 98.8% of the sensitivity of dioxin emissions from China's MSWI. According to the assumed scenarios, there is a dioxin emission reduction potential of 18.6% and 86.8% in 2050 by MSW diversion alone and maximum APCD upgrades combined with food waste diversion, respectively.