Proposal of a new method for the risk scoring and categorization of Brazilian food services

Risk scores are used worldwide to predict foodborne disease (FBD) outbreaks in the food service industry. This study aims to develop and validate a new method for the calculation of the FBD risk score for the checklist used to categorize food service outlets. The proposed novel method is based on a risk score for each item using a risk matrix (consequence × probability), overcoming the limitations of the previous scoring process used during the World Cup in Brazil, which was based on a factorial analysis. The classification of consequences was based on critical points identified by experts prior to the World Cup in Brazil. Probability was defined based on the violation percentage of each item evaluated during inspections from 1536 food service outlets. Validation was performed using a secondary database of 3072 food service assessments in two inspection cycles. The risk scores of the new method were compared with those used during the World Cup. Each food service was classified based on their risk score into four categories: A, B, C, and pending. Good concordance (Lin's correlation coefficient = 0.8711 and 0.9205) was observed between the new and previous scores in the two inspection cycles, respectively. Comparison of the classifications showed substantial agreement (Kappa = 0.749, p < 0.001) to the first inspection cycle and near-perfect agreement (Kappa = 0.821; p < 0.001) to the second inspection cycle. This new method allows the inclusion and exclusion of assessment elements depending on local reality. Simpler methods can be used throughout Brazil and serve as a model for other countries' food safety assessments.