A flexible method for estimating tip diversification rates across a range of speciation and extinction scenarios

Estimates of diversification rates at the tips of a phylogeny provide a flexible approach for correlation analyses with multiple traits and to map diversification rates in space while also avoiding the uncertainty of deep time rate reconstructions. Available methods for tip rate estimation make different assumptions, and thus their accuracy usually depends on the characteristics of the underlying model generating the tree. Here, we introduce MiSSE, a trait-free, state-dependent speciation and extinction approach that can be used to estimate varying speciation, extinction, net diversification, turnover, and extinction fractions at the tips of the tree. We compare the accuracy of tip rates inferred by MiSSE against similar methods and demonstrate that, due to certain characteristics of the model, the error is generally low across a broad range of speciation and extinction scenarios. MiSSE can be used alongside regular phylogenetic comparative methods in trait-related diversification hypotheses, and we also describe a simple correction to avoid pseudoreplication from sister tips in analyses of independent contrasts. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of MiSSE, with a renewed focus on classic comparative methods, to examine the correlation between plant height and turnover rates in eucalypts, a species-rich lineage of flowering plants.