A Tool for Forecasting the Arrival Time of a Tracer or a Pollutant at a Karst Spring

Karst aquifers are a groundwater resource of global importance. Protection and contamination of karst water resources are often tackled by means of land-use planning and monitoring of physico-chemical and microbial water properties coupled to early-warning systems. However, these solutions of management do not integrate observational data on karst hydrodynamic, for example, tracer tests. Thus, this technical note aims at introducing a straightforward method for forecasting the arrival time of a tracer or a pollutant at a karst spring. Deliverables from the proposed method can assist professionals in the case of a pollution involving a swallow hole of the karst network. The approach is based on repeated tracer testing, gauging of spring flow rate and mathematical curve fitting. Tracer tests and gauging of spring flow rates are repeated under low, middle, and high flow periods. Arrival times of tracer from a given swallow hole of the network are plotted as a function of measured flow rates at the karst spring. The observational data are finally fitted by a mathematical function. Flow rate monitoring at high-temporal resolution at the karst spring and the mathematical functions allow forecasting the arrival of a tracer or a pollutant at the spring in the case of an accident involving a swallow hole of the network or estimating the duration of a pollution if hydrodynamic conditions do not change abruptly. The applicability of the method is documented by three study sites in Switzerland.