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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 20, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Published on: September 19, 2012

Dynamically consistent objective and subjective rationality.

Lorenzo Bastianello¹, José Heleno Faro², Ana Santos²

¹Université Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas, LEMMA, 4 rue Blaise Desgoffe, 75006 Paris, France.

Economic Theory

|June 7, 2022

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study addresses decision-making under uncertainty, proposing a method to ensure policy choices remain consistent over time. It introduces a novel approach to reassessing expert beliefs, preventing dynamic inconsistencies and avoiding regret.

Keywords:

Ambiguity Aversion Dynamic Consistency Full Bayesian Updating Objective Rationality Rectangularity Subjective Rationality

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Area of Science:

Decision Theory
Climate Science
Policy Analysis

Background:

Experts advise decision-makers on policy choices (f vs. g).
Current decision rules (unanimity, precautionary principle) can create time inconsistencies.
Uncertainty resolution over time can exacerbate these inconsistencies.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop a method for dynamically consistent policy choices.
To address time inconsistencies arising from expert belief updates.
To provide a prescriptive approach for aggregating expert opinions.

Main Methods:

Analyzing decision rules involving unanimity and the precautionary principle.
Investigating time inconsistencies with partial uncertainty resolution.
Proposing a belief reassessment strategy based on 'rectangularity'.

Main Results:

The proposed belief reassessment method ensures dynamic consistency.
Achieving the smallest 'rectangular set' containing original beliefs is key.
This approach offers a novel behavioral characterization of rectangularity.

Conclusions:

Coherent reassessment of expert beliefs prevents sure regret.
The method provides a prescriptive way to aggregate opinions under uncertainty.
Ensures policy choices remain consistent despite evolving information.