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COVID-19 Vulnerability Mapping of Asian Countries.

Showmitra Kumar Sarkar1, Md Manjur Morshed1, Tanmoy Chakraborty1

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Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Vulnerability to pandemics is a complex issue influenced by multiple factors.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 framework defines vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
  • Understanding these factors is crucial for effective pandemic preparedness and response.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To map the vulnerability of Asian countries to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • To identify key socioeconomic, environmental, and health factors influencing COVID-19 outcomes.
  • To provide a framework for assessing pandemic vulnerability and informing policy interventions.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted an extensive literature review to identify 16 relevant factors.
  • Utilized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine underlying vulnerability factors.
  • Correlated estimated vulnerability with COVID-19 death rates.

Main Results:

  • Urban population percentage, obesity, air connectivity, elderly population, diabetes, and PM2.5 levels significantly increased COVID-19 sensitivity.
  • Governance effectiveness, Human Development Index (HDI), vaccination rates, life expectancy, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) positively influenced adaptive capacity.
  • A strong correlation (0.615) was found between vulnerability and COVID-19 deaths per million population.

Conclusions:

  • The study presents a methodological framework for assessing pandemic vulnerability using universal indicators.
  • Findings can inform targeted policy interventions, such as vaccine distribution priorities (e.g., COVAX).
  • The framework allows for data incorporation and replication, despite limitations in spatiotemporal analysis.