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Blackout and supply chains: Cross-structural ripple effect, performance, resilience and viability impact analysis
1Berlin School of Economics and Law, Department of Business Administration, Supply Chain and Operations Management, 10825 Berlin, Germany.
Annals of Operations Research
|June 9, 2022
Summary
Blackouts, or total power loss, can severely disrupt supply chains (SC). This study uses digital twin simulations to analyze blackout impacts, revealing key factors for SC resilience and recovery strategies.
Area of Science:
- Operations Research
- Supply Chain Management
- Risk Management
Background:
- Increasing electricity demand and energy system shifts heighten blackout risks.
- Blackouts pose significant threats to production, logistics, and retail operations, impacting supply chains (SC) based on duration and scope.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate and analyze the potential impacts of blackouts on supply chains (SC) using a digital twin.
- To evaluate SC performance, resilience, and viability under various blackout severity scenarios.
- To conceptualize blackouts as a distinct SC risk with unique characteristics like simultaneous process shutdowns and ripple effects.
Main Methods:
- Simulation analysis using the anyLogistix digital SC twin.
- Triangulation of experimental design and evaluation focusing on SC performance, resilience, and viability.
- Scenario-based modeling of different blackout severities and their effects on SC operations.
Main Results:
- Blackouts are characterized by simultaneous SC process shutdowns, disruption propagation, and potential ecosystem viability loss.
- Simulation identified power loss dynamics, blackout duration, and simultaneous supply/logistics unavailability as critical impact factors.
- Unpredictable customer behavior also significantly influences blackout impact and recovery strategy selection.
Conclusions:
- Simulation-based methodologies are effective for predicting blackout impacts and evaluating mitigation/recovery strategies.
- Decision-makers can utilize these findings to forecast SC and viability impacts and develop proactive strategies.
- Future research should focus on SC viability, reconfigurable SC, and cross-structural ripple effects in intertwined supply networks.
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