Tear film cytokines as prognostic indicators for predicting early recurrent pterygium

Cytokine profiles in tears have become a noninvasive biomarker for various ocular surface diseases. Therefore, the preoperative profile of cytokines in tear samples of 89 primary pterygium patients were obtained from Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center during 2015-2017. Compared to the tear cytokines in primary groups, the concentrations of IL-8, MMP-1, MMP-9, bFGF and VEGF were generally higher in recurrent pterygium group. The five cytokines were used to build diagnostic models by multiple machine learning algorithms, which can accurately distinguish non-recurrent and recurrent samples of primary pterygium patients. Besides, these cytokines were significantly associated with Recurrent-free survival (RFS) time in pterygium patients and further applied to develop a prognostic model which can estimate the prognosis of pterygium after resection. Afterward, a novel nomogram combined risk score of cytokines related biomarker and clinical characteristics was constructed, which manifested ideal accuracies to predict the 1 and 2 years' probability of pterygium recurrent events. Thus, our finding provides a more simple and accurate prediction for early pterygium recurrence after resection. It also affords a useful tool for ophthalmologists to choose the optimal treatment strategies for pterygium patients.