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Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa
Mark Wamalwa1, Henri E Z Tonnang2
1International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (Icipe), P.O. Box 30772-00100, Nairobi, Kenya. mwamalwa@icipe.org.
BMC Infectious Diseases
|June 10, 2022
Summary
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) effectively delayed COVID-19 peaks and reduced spread in East African countries. Strengthening these measures, including vaccination, is recommended to control the pandemic.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 poses a significant threat to African nations.
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented with varying success.
- Limited empirical data exists on NPI effectiveness against COVID-19.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model COVID-19 transmission dynamics in African countries.
- To inform policy decisions on pandemic planning and NPI implementation.
- To assess the effectiveness of NPIs using case, death, and recovery data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model with quarantine, antibody, and vaccination compartments.
- Employed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to validate eSIR model robustness.
- Assessed prediction accuracy using root mean square error and mean absolute error.
Main Results:
- Observed an exponential rise in COVID-19 cases, peaking around August 2021.
- Estimated mean reproductive number (R0) varied significantly across East African countries (e.g., Rwanda 1.32, Kenya 8.52).
- Predicted substantial case counts by January 2022, highlighting potential underestimation of actual infections and mortality.
Conclusions:
- NPIs, including lockdowns and vaccination programs, effectively reduced COVID-19 spread and delayed pandemic peaks.
- Strengthening current NPIs is crucial for continued pandemic control.
- Future research should consider the economic and food system impacts of interventions.
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